VortexBreakdown.com Storm Chasing Blog

Looks like tomorrow will be my first chase of 2008... Deep upper level trough is progged to move into the southern plains late tomorrow and overnight into Tuesday. This system is fairly strong, so the shear should be there; and with plenty of moisture in place the ingredients appear to be coming together for supercells and possible tornadoes tomorrow. One caveat may be that most of the upper level support may not arrive until very late Monday, which could inhibit convection further south where the cap will be fairly strong during the day. With that in mind, North central TX looks like the most favorable location right now, but things may change by tomorrow morning.

Anyways, a bunch of friends will likely be making the trip with me tomorrow, so it should be fun... very excited to get out in the field for the first time in 2008!

Ok, so I came to my senses the other day and decided not to head out... Things became clear during the early afternoon hours that nothing was going to happen. There were still clouds, and the front was poorly defined on surface maps, so the chances of anything happening were very low. This was just another classic case of me wanting to chase too badly, but at least I came to my senses before wasting any time and money.

Looks like there won't be any chases for the next couple of weeks, as the pattern is horrible for severe weather. We might actually get some wintery precip here in OK the next couple of days, so that will be worth watching.

So, I ended up not going out on the outbreak day a few days ago... I just woke up at 5am to go, looked at things, and didn't think NE TX looked all that good, and I didn't want to drive all the way to AR/TN for fast movers in horrible chase country, so I just didn't go.

Today is a little interesting though. There's a nearly stationary boundary in southern OK, and if storms can fire along the boundary late this afternoon the shear is decent enough for supercells and perhaps a brief tornado or two if sufficient boundary interaction can occur. Since it's so close to home I'll probably head out just in case.

... and looks like there could be a big day tomorrow... right now I'm leaning towards the Texarkana region, but that might change. Will let you know where I'm going, when I decide tonight.

Almost went out chasing today, but it looks like things will likely not get very interesting until after dark, if at all, so I think I'm going to hold off.

Latest satellite imagery shows substantial clearing in SW OK ahead of a developing dryline. Storms that fired earlier are heading off to the north and east, and it is looking more and more likely that the atmosphere and surface temperatures will recover enough to support new convective development further south and west along the dryline. I'm currently in Norman, which i think is a pretty good target for later today. Storms will likely fire off to the south and west, and then start rolling towards the I-35 corridor. I may eventually head a little south and west, but for now I'm staying put to monitor the situation.

Needless to say, I'm very, very excited about today's setup. The potential is certainly there for a few nice supercells with several tornadoes; some strong. It could be a very good chase day!

Long time since an update, so i thought I'd throw in a quick one since we appear to be in the fall chase season. I decided not to chase yesterday when I saw that the cold front/pre-frontal trough were overtaking the dryline in western OK... Despite relatively decent shear and CAPE, I thought this would lead very quickly to a squall line, which is what happened; so I'm glad I didn't head out.

I am pretty excited about a potential chase day on Wednesday in the southern plains. It looks interesting on this morning's WRF, as a strong negatively tilted trough is forecasted to dig into the midwest US. This should result in very good deep and low-level shear somewhere on Wednesday; hopefully there will be a nice dry slot rotating around the upper low so we can get some clearing and CAPE during the day, but this could be a problem. I will be watching it closely, and will have another blog update in the near future.

Got back to Norman late last night after a pretty fun trip to Vegas. I entered into the WSOP event on Saturday, and am happy with the way I played... Early on I was pretty fearless and did a good job building my stack by making some timely plays.

We started with 3000 chips, and I won my first relatively big pot with JJ... A tight early position played raised to 150, and then got reraised all in by a short stack on the button to 500. I decided to just call from the small blind and see what the initial raiser did. He just called, so I was confident that my JJ was good at the time. The initial raiser requested a "dark check", before the flop, obviously wanting to check down the hand and not create a sidepot. Screw that, there were a lot of chips in there. The flop came 4 4 6 so I fired out 700 chips or so to protect my hand... He wasn't happy but folded, and the short stack showed 55, and I took it down when a K, Q hit the turn and river. Given the turn and river I was very happy I had lead out on the flop; those cards surely would've hit the other player. For some reason people seem to think it is always correct to check down a pot when there is an allin... that's very stupid; I'm protecting my hand every time in that spot.

Later on I limped from early position for 50 chips with KQh. A tight button player made it 150, both blinds folded and I called. The flop came Th 9x 4x. I checked, and he bet out a very small amount; 100. This was a very weak bet, and I couldn't fold, so it was raise or call, so I just decided to call and see the turn; it was the 2h. I checked and he fired out 500, or about the size of the pot... I had a straight draw, flush draw, and two overcards, so I didn't really want to fold. Plus he had played the pot very stangely; it looked like a bluff to me so I moved in on him for 3000 chips or so. I figured it would be tough for him to call with anything less than two pair, and I was confident he didn't have much, if anything. He thought for a little bit, probably just saving face, before folding.

After that point my stack dwindled a bit when I saw a few flops, and failed to hit... plus my cards were cold and the blinds ate away my chips a little bit. From that point I built my stack by making some moves against an extremely aggressive young European player that was two seats to my right. He was raising about 75% of the hands that were unopened when it got to him. At 50/100 he raised to 300 from the button. I looked down at 66 and reraised to 1100, and he folded. A little later I moved all in on him after he raised from mid position to 600, and I looked down at AJ. It was about 2200 more or so, and I thought he might call given the price, and my relatively aggressive image, but he folded.

Our table then broke, and I saw absolutely nothing to play at my new table. It was a relatively aggressive table too, with a lot of big stacks on my left, so it was next to impossible to build chips without cards. I tried a few blind steals with hands like J9s and such, but got reraised and had to fold. Shortly after the second break my stack was down to about 2600 with blinds of 150/300 with 50 antes. I looked down at 10 10 in early position, and pretty much had to move all in with it. It folded around to the small blind who woke up with QQ, and knocked me out... Oh well. I'm very happy with how I played... Audley Harrison, a heavyweight boxer and olympic gold medalist from London, who now lives in Vegas, was at my table for a while, so that was kind of cool. I called his bluff on the river one time with 56o on a Q 4 7 6 4 board, so that felt pretty good. Basically he bet the flop, checked the turn, and bet the river and I called with my straight draw and then with my pair of sixes; he mucked. He had limped from mid position and I was in the big blind.

So that's how the poker went... I've decided that I'm really going to try and get my bankroll ready for a bigger trip next year, so I can play a few more events and give myself a better chance to cash and go deep in a tourney or two. Only playing one event doesn't really give you much of a chance to really do or expect anything; 6-7 or so would be better.

While in Vegas, my roommate Reed and my friend Dave saw some pretty cool stuff while stormchasing up in Canada. I had been planning the trip to Vegas for a while, so I never really considered heading up there, so I'm not sure If I would have or not... I am pretty jealous though: You should check out their website: www.tornadovideos.net

I'll do a major update to this site sometime tomorrow or Thursday, so check back soon. I hope you enjoyed the poker interlude; I'll probably continue to mix something like that in every once and while, so be ready. This blog will mostly be about weather/storm chasing, but I own it, so I can throw in anything I like

Sorry, been kind of lazy about updating the site... My last blog entry preceded a chase to western OK, where I saw some storms with perhaps some brief supercellular structure near I-40. The shear wasn't really there for good, sustained supercells, so I headed east towards home knowing that more storms may fire on an outflow boundary north and NW of OKC. They did, and one went tornadic producing several brief tornadoes well west of Enid. I got to the storm just as it went outflow dominant, and then headed towards a different storm that was forming to my south. I followed it until dark, and for a while it was a beautiful textbook supercell. For some reason it was never tornado warned, but it probably should have been.

Anyways, the main reason I haven't been updating the site recently is because I've been preparing for a trip to Vegas. I've been busy working and building a bankroll for the trip, and I leave today and will be playing in the $1500 WSOP NL Holdem event on Saturday, event #38. I'll be sure to give an update or two on how I do while I'm out there, so check back if you're interested.

I'll get back to Norman on Monday, so sometime next week there will be a MASSIVE chase update to the site. I still need to post tornado pics from the badlands in SD, and from NW Kansas, along with a bunch of other chase pics from different days. I will next week, promise... Until then I'll be gambling away. See ya later.

I will likely be heading out very shortly for western Oklahoma... An upper low is moving into the area, and storms will likely fire along the dryline later today as a surface low develops in the area. Forecasted mid and upper level wins are marginal, but given the directional shear supercells are possible. If we can get a sustained supercell or two, then tornadoes seem likely given the low level shear. Check out the NAM forecasted sounding and hodograph for 0z, Hobart, OK:





The relative wind speeds are fairly weak, but the hodograph has an absolutely perfect shape to it. The tornadoes likely won't be very strong, but several are definitely possible. Tornado potential will be enhanced if we can get a storm to turn right and move very slowly off to the east; I think this will happen. And given that the setup is so close to home, I definitely need to get out there and chase it.

Yesterday we ended up seeing a tornado just south of the badlands in South Dakota... It was a beautiful storm with textbook structure, and the tornado lasted a very long time; probably 20-25 minutes or so. The tornado itself was very small, and almost had a landspout like appearance despite originating from a beautiful supercell and wall cloud. It was pretty cool; I got a bunch of pics with the badlands in the foreground... I'm exhausted tonight, but I'll put them up tomorrow.

Today we went south hoping that the cap might break either in SE Kansas or Northern OK... We ended up sitting in Stillwater, OK for a long time watching cumulus after cumulus attempt to breach the cap, but none made it.

Anyways, sorry for the very brief update; I'm extremely tired...

We stayed the night in Valentine, NE, and we are now trying to decide on a target area. Current surface dewpoints are lower than forecasted, and likely won't get above the lower 60s in South central SD or northern NE. For this reason, along with a cirrus deck and slightly slower ejection of the upper low, it looks like there is a very good chance the cap will hold through the daylight hours in the most favorable area.

Storms will almost certainly fire further north and west along the higher terrain; especially in the vicinity of the black hills. Unfortunately the environment is not as favorable in this region, although I believe low level shear will be better than what the models are showing in this area, just north of the progged surface low.

So, we will probably head a little north, and then monitor satellite, surface and radar trends to see which area becomes more favorable throughout the day. I think there is a good chance we will end up chasing the upslope north of the low that will move out of the black hills... Unfortunately doing this pretty much throws away any chance for seeing violent tornadoes and textbook supercells, but I really think this may be our only chance at seeing something before dark. There should be enough deep layer shear for supercells in this area, coupled with enhanced low level shear north of the developing sfc low should give us a decent chance at seeing tornadoes.

We will probably wait for a little more RUC data and hopefully an 18z sounding or two before heading in that direction... I really want to hold out hope that storms will fire on the dryline bulge before dark, but it's looking very unlikely right now.

Adam Atkins, myself and maybe a few others are about to leave Norman to reposition for tomorrow's setup. We will stay the night somewhere in north central Nebraska and then check out things in the morning before choosing a final target area. Right now I think it looks best somewhere a little south of Pierre, SD, so it'd be nice to make it as far north as possible tonight.

Thursday looks interesting as well, although given the fast movement of the front and the strength of the vort max, a squall line will likely develop. For this reason the current thinking is to chase South Dakota on Wednesday, and then start hauling it south towards SE Kansas for Thursday. This area may be more favorable for isolated development since the cap will be stronger, the front will be moving more slowly, and storm motions may be slightly more perpendicular to the front. We will make a final decision about Thursday later on though.

Anyways, I'll try to give an update either tonight or tomorrow morning about where we are heading, and what we are likely to see. The shear looks incredible, and despite a very potent capping inversion I think we'll be alright if we make it far enough north where upper forcing from the vort max and associated jet streak should help out.

Models are beginning to come together for what appears to be a significant tornado outbreak, with several strong/long track tornadoes likely on Wednesday. Earlier I was worried about the cap being too strong, but recent guidance has consistently shifted to more southerly flow 12z Wednesday at 850mb and 700mb, resulting in a weaker cap, especially northward into Nebraska and South Dakota. The GFS is a little slower with the system, but both the GFS and WRF paint a very dangerous scenario for the Nebraska and South Dakota areas. Right now I'm thinking south central/eastern South Dakota is the best area, especially if the GFS verifies and the system moves a little slower and slightly more to the north; my hunch is it will.

Basically every severe weather parameter ever invented is through the roof on the models for Wednesday evening... As an example, check out the forecasted significant tornado parameters and supercell composites for Wednesday evening on the WRF; they are pretty much maxed out:

Supercell Composite Index:


Significant Tornado Parameter:


Keep in mind the GFS paints it's bullseyes a little further north and west than the WRF, and I happen to trust it a little more. So, my initial target would be south central South Dakota around Chamberlain. Storms will be moving very, very quickly, so this is the type of event where I will position myself well to the east of the initiation area, and then move north and south choosing the best storm as they roll towards me. I will update this blog again before I leave for the target area sometime tomorrow.

Hi! Sorry about the lack of updates, but I was out of town for an entire week and have been pretty busy with things since getting back. I still haven't had time to update the website with new tornado pics/video from May 21, but I promise they'll be up by early next week.

Speaking of next week, the GFS is painting a VERY interesting picture for mid to late week. Check out the progged 500mb winds for Wed, Thu and Fri:



Focusing on Wednesday evening check out the forecasted 850mb winds, dewpoints, and LI values... Not bad at all!



As of right now on the GFS potential exists all the way from Texas to southern North Dakota on Wednesday... It's very early, but right now I'd favor the area from Nebraska to South Dakota due to more upper level support, and a likely much weaker capping inversion. It's still too far out to get excited, but oh well, I already am! The SPC agrees that the pattern looks very active next week... Check out the multiple target areas on the extended outlook:




Anyways, I need to work quite a bit this weekend so I can afford to spend lots of time/money and chase next week, but I'll update the website and this blog sometime early in the week.

Saw a tornado yesterday NW of Hays, KS... Was a decent stovepipe, and lasted around 2-3 minutes... I ended up going to Woodward initially, and it was clear by the time I got there that storms probably wouldn't fire along the dryline, so I flew north. I got some pretty good video and pics...

I'm visiting some friends, so I couldn't chase today, and won't be able to update the website for a week or so since I'll be out of town. Until then, adios!